Merge pull request #30 from sebdraven/master

add pdf viewer

content/articles/analyse_tags/tags.md

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+---
+title: Estimation rentabilité et profitabilité des opérations d'influence russes
+date: 2024-07-01
+author: M82_project
+tags: [LMI,Russie]
+---
+
+"Étoiles de David", "mains rouges", "affaire des cercueils", M82 project s'est lancé dans une petite analyse des dernières opérations d'influence russes visant la France et en particulier le mode opératoire qui combine monde physique et numérique. 
+
+**Les affaires de tags sont ainsi un bon cas d'usage**
+
+# De quoi parle-t-on ?
+  
+Le mode opératoire étudié est celui dit des "tags". En fin d'année 2023, de nouvelles actions hybrides apparaissent sur le territoire national. En l'espèce, des individus tagent ou utilisent des pochoirs pour diffuser leurs narratifs (anti-JO, étoiles de David, etc). Ces actions isolées sont ensuite relayées et amplifiées sur les réseaux sociaux puis dans la presse qui s'en fait largement l'écho. 
+**TTP : "tags - pochoirs" + reprise RS + appels aux rédactions et articles.**
+
+Il nous a semblé intéressant de tenter d'évaluer la rentabilité de ses opérations ainsi que la profitabilité. Se posant ainsi la question, il devient intéressant d'évaluer la riposte à consacrer à ce mode opératoire car dans la plupart des cas, dénoncer contribue à donner de la visibilité à un phénomène limité et concentré. Cette sur-exposition médiatique va ainsi nourir l'heuristique de disponibilité et fixer dans nos mémoires des informations qui ne méritent pas franchement d'y rester.
+
+# Méthode, hypothèses et limites
+
+Le tableau synthèse n'est qu'une "estimation" M82 n'a malheuresement pas accès à la comptabilité des officines en charge de ces opérations...Nous nous sommes donc fondé sur des données recueillies en sources ouvertes et sur les hypothèses ci-dessous:
+
+salaire:  100€ / pers (les petites mains);
+
+voyage : billets d’avion à 100€ (Sofia paris):
+
+logement 100€
+
+visa 50€ / pers
+
+matériel : bombes peinture 20€, pochoir 70€, cercueil 500€
+
+La principale limite de notre estimation vient du fait que nous ne relevons que les articles de la presse écrite papier et en ligne (des principaux médias nationaux). Il serait intéressant de disposer des données TV et radio pour, en particulier mesurer le temps d'antenne consacré aus différentes OP.
+
+# Notions évaluées 
+
+**La rentabilité de l'opération** est entendue comme le rapport entre le coût estimé et la reprise médiatique.
+
+**La profitabilité de l'opération** : en économie c'est une indication sur le revenue que peut apporter une ressource à une entreprise, disons que pour les opérations ce pourrait être une estimation de l'atteinte de l'effet recherché au regard du mode opératoire et de son coût).
+
+# Principales conclusions
+La première opération a une très faible rentabilité et on peut considérer que sa profitabilité est faible. L'OP a une faible visibilité et le sujet ne contribue pas à polariser l'opinion. En revanche quelques jours plus tard l'affaire des "étoiles de David" est un vrai succès. Tant en terme de rentabilité 9% que de profitabilité. Le mode opératoire (MO) est validé, le sujet clivant (TA0013 du modèle DIMA) et il vient en outre renforcer l'heuristique de disponibilité (TE0111 du modèle DIMA). S'en suit une longue période de silence puis une reprise des activités en mai avec "la main rouge", rentabilité décroissante de même que la profitabilité (pas d'effet de rupture). En revanche le cas des cercueils est assez significatif. Car à rentabilité décroissante constante (le côut augmente plus vite que le taux de reprise médiatique) on peut considérer que cette affaire a obtenu une importante profitabilité (sujet des soldats FR en UKR, etc.). Pour conclure et en considérant les limites évoquées, on peut dire que les opérations de ce type sont de moins en moins rentables (leurs coûts augmente pour des métriques plus faibles) en revanche elles contribuent durablement à l'atteinte des obkectifs adverses. Elles sont relativement profitables pour l'adversaire qui devrait donc naturellement poursuivre ce MO.
+
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